Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 18.881440 21.520973 24.364733 27.652380 31.344477 35.358683 40.049565
2025-01-05 15.383257 19.050626 23.304130 28.585936 34.951651 42.358337 51.610467
2025-01-12 13.073861 17.084552 21.962405 28.301980 36.290912 45.988696 58.613827
2025-01-19 10.805049 14.831297 19.944416 26.869378 35.952280 47.402399 62.864303
2025-01-26 9.864075 14.109493 19.699119 27.532847 38.152338 51.960249 71.170391
2025-02-02 9.112615 13.533817 19.548929 28.243562 40.384734 56.613917 79.799636
2025-02-09 8.204482 12.628845 18.838421 28.079821 41.348761 59.549835 86.202623
2025-02-16 7.364540 11.728352 18.036255 27.686024 41.908319 61.894296 91.841525
2025-02-23 6.784566 11.151330 17.638064 27.816222 43.181209 65.254642 99.028875
2025-03-02 6.325084 10.710694 17.394878 28.135141 44.715619 69.029047 106.959029
2025-03-09 5.858755 10.212709 17.015880 28.201121 45.844205 72.229543 114.161287
2025-03-16 5.373591 9.637787 16.465352 27.945275 46.436525 74.622741 120.225998
2025-03-23 5.024181 9.267716 16.227131 28.188475 47.852869 78.388099 128.656968
2025-03-30 4.833609 9.152958 16.396642 29.102707 50.389669 84.013818 140.257814
2025-04-06 4.446119 8.654605 15.879673 28.825871 50.946228 86.512181 146.995516
2025-04-13 3.899718 7.819016 14.718437 27.365049 49.430049 85.579672 148.137556
2025-04-20 3.745728 7.694868 14.790919 28.041052 51.555203 90.669745 159.319567
2025-04-27 3.609525 7.591566 14.890014 28.763396 53.788726 96.028356 171.168747
2025-05-04 3.358414 7.242574 14.513119 28.597024 54.443610 98.744113 178.673919
2025-05-11 3.098347 6.852241 14.029014 28.196499 54.647061 100.679994 184.910080
2025-05-18 2.926802 6.626332 13.839179 28.328923 55.813130 104.320990 194.230634
2025-05-25 2.790715 6.461958 13.755277 28.653245 57.341288 108.653293 204.929012
2025-06-01 2.635399 6.242992 13.547142 28.720345 58.384824 112.157288 214.290092